Modeling Lane-Changing Behavior in a Connected Environment: A Game Theory Approach

AbstractVehicle-to-Vehicle communications provide the opportunity to create an internet of cars through the recent advances in communication technologies, processing power, and sensing technologies. Aconnected vehicle receives real-time information from surrounding vehicles; such information can improve drivers’ awareness about their surrounding traffic condition and lead to safer and more efficient driving maneuvers. Lane-changing behavior,as one of the most challenging driving maneuvers to understand and to predict, and a major source of congestion and collisions, can benefit from this additional information.This paper presents a lane-changing model based on a game-theoretical approach that endogenously accounts for the flow of information in a connected vehicular environment.A calibration approach based on the method of simulated moments is presented and a simplified version of the proposed framework is calibrated against NGSIM data. The prediction capability of the simplified model is validated. It is concluded the presented framework is capable of predicting lane-changing behavior with limitations that still need to be addressed.Finally, a simulation framework based on the fictitious play is proposed. The simulation results revealed that the presented lane-changing model provides a greater level of realism than a basic gap-acceptance model

Characteristics of Vehicular Traffic Flow at a Roundabout

We construct a stochastic cellular automata model for the description of vehicular traffic at a roundabout designed at the intersection of two perpendicular streets. The vehicular traffic is controlled by a self-organized scheme in which traffic lights are absent. This controlling method incorporates a yield-at-entry strategy for the approaching vehicles to the circulating traffic flow in the roundabout. Vehicular dynamics is simulated within the framework of the probabilistic cellular automata and the delay experienced by the traffic at each individual street is evaluated for specified time intervals. We discuss the impact of the geometrical properties of the roundabout on the total delay. We compare our results with traffic-light signalisation schemes, and obtain the critical traffic volume over which the intersection is optimally controlled through traffic light signalisation schemes.Comment: 10 pages, 17 eps figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:cond-mat/040107

Least expected time paths in stochastic, time-varying transportation networks

The authors consider stochastic, time-varying transportation networks, where the arc weights (arc travel times) are random variables with probability distribution functions that vary with time. Efficient procedures are widely available for determining least time paths in deterministic networks. In stochastic but time-invariant networks, least expected time paths can be determined by setting each random arc weight to its expected value and solving an equivalent deterministic problem. This paper addresses the problem of determining least expected time paths in stochastic, time-varying networks. Two procedures are presented. The first procedure determines the a priori least expected time paths from all origins to a single destination for each departure time in the peak period. The second procedure determines lower bounds on the expected times of these a priori least expected time paths. This procedure determines an exact solution for the problem where the driver is permitted to react to revealed travel times on traveled links en route, i.e. in a time-adaptive route choice framework. Modifications to each of these procedures for determining least expected cost (where cost is not necessarily travel time) paths and lower bounds on the expected costs of these paths are given. Extensive numerical tests are conducted to illustrate the algorithms` computational performance as well as the properties of the solution

An agent-based approach to assess drivers’ interaction with pre-trip information systems.

This article reports on the practical use of a multi-agent microsimulation framework to address the issue of assessing drivers’ responses to pretrip information systems. The population of drivers is represented as a community of autonomous agents, and travel demand results from the decision-making deliberation performed by each individual of the population as regards route and departure time. A simple simulation scenario was devised, where pretrip information was made available to users on an individual basis so that its effects at the aggregate level could be observed. The simulation results show that the overall performance of the system is very likely affected by exogenous information, and these results are ascribed to demand formation and network topology. The expressiveness offered by cognitive approaches based on predicate logics, such as the one used in this research, appears to be a promising approximation to fostering more complex behavior modelling, allowing us to represent many of the mental aspects involved in the deliberation process

A Simplified Cellular Automaton Model for City Traffic

We systematically investigate the effect of blockage sites in a cellular automaton model for traffic flow. Different scheduling schemes for the blockage sites are considered. None of them returns a linear relationship between the fraction of ``green'' time and the throughput. We use this information for a fast implementation of traffic in Dallas.Comment: 12 pages, 18 figures. submitted to Phys Rev

Volatile Decision Dynamics: Experiments, Stochastic Description, Intermittency Control, and Traffic Optimization

The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc., they normally make decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. In related experiments, we have observed a volatile decision dynamics and far-from-optimal payoff distributions. We have also identified ways of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. In order to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations, a stochastic behavioural description is developed. These strategies manage to increase the adaptibility to changing conditions and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual payoffs. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. These results are highly significant for predicting decision behaviour, for reaching optimal behavioural distributions by decision support systems, and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.Comment: For related work see http://www.helbing.or

Criterion for traffic phases in single vehicle data and empirical test of a microscopic three-phase traffic theory

A microscopic criterion for distinguishing synchronized flow and wide moving jam phases in single vehicle data measured at a single freeway location is presented. Empirical local congested traffic states in single vehicle data measured on different days are classified into synchronized flow states and states consisting of synchronized flow and wide moving jam(s). Then empirical microscopic characteristics for these different local congested traffic states are studied. Using these characteristics and empirical spatiotemporal macroscopic traffic phenomena, an empirical test of a microscopic three-phase traffic flow theory is performed. Simulations show that the microscopic criterion and macroscopic spatiotemporal objective criteria lead to the same identification of the synchronized flow and wide moving jam phases in congested traffic. It is found that microscopic three-phase traffic models can explain both microscopic and macroscopic empirical congested pattern features. It is obtained that microscopic distributions for vehicle speed difference as well as fundamental diagrams and speed correlation functions can depend on the spatial co-ordinate considerably. It turns out that microscopic optimal velocity (OV) functions and time headway distributions are not necessarily qualitatively different, even if local congested traffic states are qualitatively different. The reason for this is that important spatiotemporal features of congested traffic patterns are it lost in these as well as in many other macroscopic and microscopic traffic characteristics, which are widely used as the empirical basis for a test of traffic flow models, specifically, cellular automata traffic flow models.Comment: 27 pages, 16 figure

Computation of Equilibrium Distributions of Markov Traffic-Assignment Models

Markov traffic-assignment models explicitly represent the day-to-day evolving interaction between traffic congestion and drivers' information acquisition and choice processes. Such models can, in principle, be used to investigate traffic flows in stochastic equilibrium, yielding estimates of the equilibrium mean and covariance matrix of link or route traffic flows. However, in general these equilibrium moments cannot be written down in closed form. While Monte Carlo simulations of the assignment process may be used to produce “empirical” estimates, this approach can be extremely computationally expensive if reliable results (relatively free of Monte Carlo error) are to be obtained. In this paper an alternative method of computing the equilibrium distribution is proposed, applicable to the class of Markov models with linear exponential learning filters. Based on asymptotic results, this equilibrium distribution may be approximated by a Gaussian process, meaning that the problem reduces to determining the first two multivariate moments in equilibrium. The first of these moments, the mean flow vector, may be estimated by a conventional traffic-assignment model. The second, the flow covariance matrix, is estimated through various linear approximations, yielding an explicit expression. The proposed approximations are seen to operate well in a number of illustrative examples. The robustness of the approximations (in terms of network input data) is discussed, and shown to be connected with the “volatility” of the traffic assignment process